Attempting to gauge the current recession is similar to watching a nightmare unfold into its ultimate depth.

Originally instigated by a U.S.-based housing market depression in August 2007, it soon evolved into a credit crisis unmatched in the annals of America's economic history. This broadened into a potential financial meltdown, which was defused by a gargantuan $700 billion “Troubled Asset Relief Plan,” which initially funded nine of America's largest banks, to unfreeze the nation's financial arteries.
This has since spread into a full-fledged global epidemic, with America at the epicenter of its worldwide consequences.
Although originally appearing to be a moderate culmination of a five-year, high-leveraged boom, the current recessionary episode could descend into the most debilitating downward cycle since the 1978-82 inflation-based economic implosions.
But the financial storm that the U.S. is now experiencing will likely need most of the year 2009 to unravel.
Here are the most disconcerting aspects:
Unemployment could easily reach 8% of employables, or even above this amount by the end of this year.
From my original estimate of no growth, the gross domestic product could show sharp losses during the first half of 2009, with not enough reversal in the last two quarters to break even for the whole year.
With indiscriminate government expenditures being utilized to patch the many fissures appearing in America's economic infrastructure, a trillion-dollar budget deficit is a sure thing for fiscal 2009. This will catapult America's long-term debt into double-digit trillions.
The only good news is that the Federal Reserve Board will make sufficient liquidity available to the financial community at historically low interest rates. This, combined with price deflation domestically and on imports, will keep inflation at bay during 2009.
The equity and bond markets are experiencing the worst washout in decades. It will likely be followed by an upsurge early next year, as professional investors will corral the greatest exposure of fire sale stocks and bonds ever made available by the various U.S. stock exchanges.
Morris R. Beschloss writes a regular blog on mydesert.com. He can be heard on KPSI Radio 920 AM from 8 to 9 a.m. every Friday and on KGAM Radio 1450 from 9 to 10 a.m. Saturday. He can also be seen on KESQ Channel 3, and on Time Warner Cable TV Channel 111.













