INDIAN WELLS — The Coachella Valley saw a near-record number of sales transactions over the past 27 months, but deals continue to close at rock-bottom prices, real estate experts said Thursday.

That's great news for first-time buyers, said Leslie Appleton-Young, California Association of Realtors' vice president and chief economist. She cited the upward swing in first-time buyers to 47 percent of all home-buyers.

“There's no better window of opportunity for non-owners to become homeowners than right now,” said Pat Veling, president and founder of Brea-based Real Data Strategies Inc.

Sale prices are expected to stay low in 2010, Veling told nearly 425 real estate professionals at the industry forecast at Hyatt Grand Champions Resort in Indian Wells on Thursday.

“Agents will have to work harder” in 2010, he said. “That means agents will have to do more deals to achieve the same business thresholds they did two or three years ago,” he said.

Veling's 2010 real estate forecast for the Coachella Valley predicts:

Any uptick in sales will come at the low end of the market.

Sluggish sales activity will continue in the mid- to upper- level home market, and upscale tract homes in the valley and elsewhere in America will feel the pinch as their neighborhoods grapple with significant declines in value and equity.

“We're seeing upscale tract homes that sold for $800,000 in some places fall below the $500,000 mark, which is the top range of the valley's entry- level market,” Veling said.

Affordable home prices have attracted a large number of first-time buyers.

“The percentages are looking like they did in the early 1990s,” Appleton-Young said.

There's a “huge opportunity” for move-up buyers.

“Higher-priced property values are fluctuating,” Veling said, offering this mantra for 2010: “Sell at a 5 percent hit. Buy at 10 to 15 percent off.”

For all levels of homes, Veling said it will be imperative to focus on the nuances of a dynamic, ever-changing market.

“Arm yourself with real-time data,” he said.

View from the field

Greg Berkemer, executive vice president of the California Desert Association of Realtors, said the report from the state and the forecast from Veling reflect an environment that is still transitioning.

“It's still healing,” he said. “There are still issues out there.”

One twist is the strong emergence of cash deals.

Cash buys are occurring in the marketplace like never before, Veling said.

“They have savvy,” he said. “They will determine value and will want their money to go far because of their ability to pay cash. Seller realism is the key to making offers come together.”

Appleton-Young said real estate agents are seeing multiple bids come in again.

And a growing number of sales close below list price. While 40 percent of all homes sold in 2006 went for below the asking price, the average is now 80 percent, state data shows. The long-run average is 69 percent.

The last time the MLS bidding field shaped up this way, the year was 1998.

“This is not a normal market, where you can look at five years of activity and say this is where we're going,” Berkemer said.

“In 2002 and 2003, we could make predictions with far more confidence. Now, the best we can do is go forward with confidence things will change and that, as of this moment, this is the best information we've got.”

Serena Nobles, broker and owner of Noble Design Realty, said she is new to the valley and thought the presentation was informative.

Thomas Iovenitti, president and chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage serving Orange County and the Desert Resorts area, called the presentations optimistic.

“Statistics are one thing,” he said. “But it's what happens on the street that matters.”

Debra Gruszecki covers real estate, the economy and Indian gaming for The Desert Sun. She can be reached at Debra.Gruszecki@thedesertsun.com or 778-4643.