Armed with menus and a big smile, Kathy Roberts offers a homecoming greeting to those walking through the doors of Louise's Pantry.

Old friends and seasonal regulars from such gray-and-cold cities as Calgary, Portland and Milwaukee are filling tables at the La Quinta breakfast-and-lunch spot.

Their arrival coincides with November and the traditional launch of the Coachella Valley's critical “season.”

“We live for the snowbirds to come back,” Roberts said.

And the bottom line proves it: Business at Louise's Pantry doubles once the high season hits.

Amid last year's economic free-fall that gripped the Coachella Valley and the rest of the country, local merchants, business owners and hospitality leaders bemoaned fewer travelers coming to the desert.

And those who did slashed their spending.

But as restaurants, hotels, golf courses and shops prepare to welcome back this year's first wave of snowbirds, the tone is more optimistic.

While no one tracks snowbird spending habits or analyzes buying trends in the Coachella Valley, The Desert Sun last week unscientifically surveyed local businesses to capture forecasts for the critical final weeks of 2009 and the first four months of 2010.

Confident Canadians

Adam Manthei is encouraged by the number of people calling to reserve a spot at Caliente Springs, an RV resort in Desert Hot Springs.

The director of marketing and development said people were rolling up at the last minute last year, and they didn't really need reservations.

Daily and weekly traffic was down 30 percent. It was the first Thanksgiving ever that the RV resort wasn't full.

But reservations this year are up slightly. Manthei expects it to be a better season, especially with the Canadian loonie gaining strength against the American dollar.

As of Thursday, one loonie was worth 93.7 cents.

“They feel rich, and more of them are coming,” he said, adding the resort has seen an increase in guests from Canada since last season.

At the Palm Mountain Resort & Spa in downtown Palm Springs, total room sales are down 14 percent year-over-year in 2009, general manager Tim Ellis said. He expects a flat 2009-10 season.

“If we get lucky, it will be a bit better,” he said.

Ellis was in Canada last week on a sales mission with the valley's head tourism agency, the Palm Springs Desert Resort Communities Convention and Visitors Authority. Hospitality leaders were making media circuits and chatting up tour operators in the hopes of bringing business back home.

“The Canadian economy vs. the U.S. economy is reasonably intact,” Ellis said.

He's bullish about the chances of Canadians composing a large chunk of his business this season.

He picked up two wholesale contracts on his trip, which means tour operators will include his hotel on brochures that go to thousands of travel agents in Canada.

Ellis chuckled about his flight into Edmonton on Wednesday. When the plane landed, snow was dusting the ground.

“It makes the Palm Springs pitch easier,” he said.

More flights into Palm Springs

That pitch won't be a hard sell as winter wears on our neighbors to the North, says Robert Palmer, WestJet public relations manager.

“As the winter goes on and the cold weather hits western Canada demand for trips to Palm Springs will most definitely pick up,” he said.

WestJet is banking on it.

The airline started service to Palm Springs International Airport in September — a month earlier than in 2008 — and increased its capacity with more direct flights out of more markets.

“We have almost doubled the number of seats from Edmonton,” Palmer said. “We've increased by 20 percent the number of seats going down from Vancouver and just a little bit from Calgary.”

Booking pace is lagging slightly early this season, Palmer said. However, the company is confident that increasing its foothold in Palm Springs will pay off.

“We hope they come in droves. We welcome them,” said airport executive director Tom Nolan. “We're counting on them.”

In the 2008-09 season, the airport experienced an 89 percent increase in passengers from November through April compared to the preceding six months. March is typically the airport's peak month.

Making customers happy is key

When Mel Haber started doing business in the desert 35 years ago, he was advised the money-making months were February, March and April.

“An old-timey said to me, ‘Those are the magic 100 days,'” said Haber, owner the Ingleside Inn and of Melvyn's Restaurant & Lounge in Palm Springs.

In those days, bookings at the Canyon Hotel served as the season bellwether. He doesn't have a prediction for this season.

“I have no real gut feeling to what this year holds. It's still pretty tough out there,” he said. Business at his restaurant and hotel are down about 20 percent from last fall.

“In these tough times, you've got to make customers as happy as you can possibly do it.”

Consumers are more knowledgeable this fall, too, said Judy Vossler, senior vice president for Landmark Golf. The management firm handles SilverRock Resort in La Quinta among other Southern California courses.

Valley golf courses saw a drop in attendance and demand for tee times last year. Many slashed their rates to entice golfers.

“I think the consumer is more aggressive about looking for deals because they're more savvy than they were last year,” Vossler said.

“They've had a whole year to educate themselves on how to find lower rates on the Internet, how to wait till the day before.”

That said, golfers want to play on some of the Coachella Valley's finest courses. If here for a week, the enthusiast will find a way to fit a round at SilverRock into the budget, Vossler said.

“They're also going to splurge.”

Establishing their second homes

Greg Berkemer, executive vice president of California Desert Association of Realtors, said the valley has always focused heavily on the Canadian market, even when the loonie didn't always work in their favor.

Now that the exchange rate is better, the desert is an attractive real estate option.

“One of our goals this year, and going into next year, is to build an international division that conducts training in the area on ways to encourage people to come to the desert and buy a home here,” he said.

Tarbell Realty also erected billboards in the valley to welcome snowbirds, promoting key brokers and agents who may handle their housing needs.

As more visitors turn into part-time desert residents, doctors at Eisenhower Medical Center are experiencing growth in their practices.

Patient volume increases starting every October, chief operating officer Marty Massiello said. The biggest months are January through April.

Massiello said admissions and volumes declined last year, thanks to the economy.

He expects that trend to hold steady this season, as patients continue delaying elective procedures and other healthcare needs.

Spending habits give optimism

The change in business leaders' attitudes stems largely from spending habits of snowbirds like Dr. Larry Israel and Sandra Leavitt-Israel.

The Seattle couple bought a second home in Rancho La Quinta Country Club in 1999. They spend about six months here every year and often host out-of-town guests who come here to vacation.

When in town, the Israels take in shows at the McCallum Theatre, hike, golf, shop and attend events for local charities. They go out to restaurants for half of their meals.

“It's a retirement person's paradise,” Israel said.

The Israels tightened their spending and focused on the necessities last year. They will loosen up a bit more this year.

“The market's back up and the economy is starting to pick up,” Dr. Israel said, digging into his eggs and sausage at Louise's Pantry in La Quinta.

The restaurant opened in downtown Palm Springs in 1946. As she seated people Thursday, Kathy Roberts explained that the staff has developed relationships with their customers who return every season.

They are family.

“People who were dining three or four times a week were only coming in once a week,” she said of the 2008-09 season.

Owner Christopher Paolini said business was off 40 percent from the year before. He doesn't expect it to slide any more this year and thinks it could be slightly better.

He's already circled the boom months from January to April.

The restaurant serves 400 meals on a typical Sunday in the off-season. On a Sunday in January, they will serve 800.

“We turn and burn here,” he said.

Reporter Debra Gruszecki contributed to this report. Monica Torline is a business reporter for The Desert Sun. She can be reached at monica.torline@thedesertsun.com or (760) 778-4620.