Universal trade, which forms the core of an eventual worldwide recovery, absorbed a setback in August, the latest month for which these figures are available.

The highly regarded Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis announced a 2 percent drop from July, in a report covering 23 developed and 60 emerging nations, accounting for 95 percent of world trade.

Although this setback may be temporary, it could heighten anxiety over a relapse from the comeback of the worldwide global trade crash that occurred late last year.

This export downfall hit leading world exporters like China, Japan, Germany and India especially hard. Although the United States experienced a rollback from its 2007 peak export revenues, this had less effect on America's overall gross domestic product of goods and services due to its much lesser dependence on foreign trade.

It's estimated that overall world trade decrease on a year-to-year comparison with August 2008, amounted to 13 percent. The International Monetary Fund expects that world trade in all of 2009 will fall 11.9 percent from the previous year. When compared to the peak year 2007, it will probably exceed 20 percent. The current trade diminution represents the greatest global trade reversal since the Great Depression.

The IMF envisages a 2010 global trade comeback falling short of 3 percent. This is particularly worrisome since such stagnation could instigate protectionist action by revenue- starved world powers. Particularly hurt by such a turn of events would be the poor agrarian developing nations whose agricultural exports would be frozen out. Such exports are necessary for economic expansion in these nations.

Politically inspired U.S. tariffs, such as those imposed on low-priced Chinese tires, could further inflame the embers of incipient protectionism.

Morris R. Beschloss writes a regular blog on mydesert.com. He can be heard on KPSI Radio 920 AM from 8 to 9 a.m. every Friday and on KGAM Radio 1450 from 9 to 10 a.m. Saturdays. He also can be seen on KESQ Channel 3 and Time Warner Cable TV Channel 111.